Today's Oregonian "inPortland" insert has an article analyzing the Democratic victories in East Multnomah County. A couple of quotes are worthy of mention. Tim Nashif (a Republican consultant) is right when he said "It's been happening slowly but surely for a long time." For many years the demographics of the area have been shifting, allowing Democrats to have a much better chance at winning. For several elections the Republicans held onto those seats because they had incumbants, and the Democrats had not mounted strong ground campaigns in the area. The win by Democrats in all three east county districts (plus district 51 which is not mentioned in the article) is the culmination of years of change in the area combined with a year of Democratic gains at all levels. The success of Laurie Monnes-Anderson demonstrated before this year that a good Democratic candidate with a strong ground campaign could win the area.
Greg Matthews is also right in saying "I don't think it came down to red or blue or R or D." Greg was, as Rob Brading says, "a buzz saw of a candidate". What is left out of the article is the fact that because of the national mood against Bush, the Republicans had an extremely difficult time getting any decent candidates, while the Democrats had extremely good candidates showing up in places where we never had them before.
In east county, Rob Brading had laid the groundwork for a Democratic victory in District 49 with his previous two campaigns. This year the incumbant Minnis did not run, which assured a strong chance for Democrat Nick Kahl to win. By campaigning hard, Nick swung the district.
In District 50, incumbant Lim was slipping, clearly letting it show that he was ready to retire (and letting it be known that if re-elected this would have been his last term), leaving voters open to electing someone younger with fresh ideas and willing to work hard for the area. Greg, being a lifelong resident, former DARE officer, and a firefighter, was already extremely well known. The fact that this was shaping up to be a Democratic year, enabled the Democrats to recruit very strong candidates like Matthews.
In districts 51 and 52, Democratic candidates campaigned hard. The rising tide of Democratic support accross the country meant that Democratic supporters did not "write-off" many districts that in the past had been considered Republican. This is partly the success of Dean's "50 State Strategy" and Oregon's equivalent "36 county strategy", plus the attention that the Multnomah County Democrats have provided to east county districts.
With the shift in demographics, I can see District 49 remaining Democratic for many years to come. Districts 50, 51 and 52 are still swing Districts. There was no one factor that caused the Democrats to win all four districts. It was the combination of "Obama coattails", dissatisfaction with Republicans in general, changing demographics, strong candidates, strong field campaigns, and generally increased support from Democratic organizations for candidates in "swingable" areas.
Key points to remember from these victories are,
- Strong candidates make a difference.
- Strong field campaigns make a difference.
- Given adequate support, Democratic candidates can win in many areas previously thought unwinnable.
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